I did write a "theory" regarding whom I thought the leak was which I classed as PURELY SPECULATIVE even in the title. Reason being I had no concrete evidence in some of my conclusions. However, there are some things that we can factually identify and I think it's using that as context that will make this a lot easier.
With that said, I'm somewhat discarding the person I suspected as a leak in my theory as the evidence wasn't very substantial, it was for the most part open to interpretation, but here I am writing another piece of speculation which I think would be better than the last.
I will highlight what is Speculative and what I deem Fact in sub-headings. Without much more rambling... on to my main point.
FACT: ORIGIN OF THE LEAK
Carrot as well as other Minks have been subjected to being called a traitor for whatever reason. I'm not going to claim she is/they are at this point. I will however lay down some OBJECTIVE FACTS regarding how the Beast Pirates knew Raizo was at Zou.
First thing that needs to be understood is that Oda in essence tells us HOW they got to Zou. We're told by Inuarashi that they must have had a Vivre card ⁸²⁴. It's the one hint Oda gives us, therefore, it's implied he's telling us we should go with Vivre cards are how they got there.
Second thing that needs be understood is how do vivre cards work. It's a piece of paper created with Toe Nail clippings. This paper once created can be torn.
The torn pieces are attracted towards each other, but it doesn't tell one how far the papers are from the other ⁴⁸⁹.
The other thing is it indicates one's life-force by reducing in size ⁴⁸⁹; it also changes in size meaning if someone dies, the Vivre-card will disappear ⁵⁷⁴.
What does this mean exactly regarding Jack arriving at Zou? For example, Luffy's vivre card in Wano was found by Sanji, it however didn't tell them where exactly he was, but they at least knew he was alive ⁹²⁰. They had to contact Kinemon in order to know where exactly Luffy was located.
The other thing that needs be reinforced is Vivre-cards disappear when life has dissipated and remains if someone is alive.
HOW DOES ONE GET TO ZOU
Law had a vivre-card of Bepo in order to get to Zou ⁸⁰⁵; he gave one to Nami ⁷⁰¹; he gave one to Nami because it's impossible to get to Zou since it isn't an Island with a magnetic field, but a moving Elephant ⁸⁰². It means one can't just get to Zou because they know Zou exists, one can only get there if they have a vivre card of someone at Zou.
The exception would be being Mink whom are able to home in on Zou seemingly. Bepo had been away from Zou most of his life, yet he found his way there which implies they must have some unique homing ability.
WHAT MOST PEOPLE DON'T KNOW
Most people don't know this, but I will explain how it relates to Zou. When the Swirly Pirates went to Zou, the Big Mom Pirates followed them. How? Are one of the Strawhat Pirates secretly spies, leaks or traitors working for Big Mom? I think we can logically conclude they're not given all the sacrifices they've made for each other.
How then did Big Mom Pirates know Swirly Pirates were heading to Zou? Simply, they heard them shouting that they were heading for Zou... go figure ⁸¹¹. There was no traitor amongst the Strawhat Pirates.
Most people aren't aware that when Kinemon and co. arrived from the past, whilst being chased by BEAST PIRATES, they shouted to meet at Zou ⁹²⁰. There wasn't necessarily a traitor amongst the Minks. The Beast Pirates simply like the Big Mom Pirates... heard the information.
However, as we've established from Law, just knowing about Zou doesn't let you know how to get to Zou. You need someone at Zou whose vivre card is at hand, otherwise, it's impossible to get to Zou, thus, Inuarashi's conclusion.
As shown here:
A traitor isn't necessary for someone to have come to Zou.
WHAT DOES ALL THE EVIDENCE TELL US
We know how vivre cards work.
We know they must have heard the location being passed across, thus Jack arriving at Zou.
We know there isn't necessarily a traitor.
What we now need to do is use the current information we have to understand the most likely scenario that led to this event.
Another bit of information we need to realise here is that Raizo arrived at Zou. We can only assume that Raizo also had a Vivre card of someone at Zou just like Jack did.
CONDITIONS REQUIRED TO GET TO ZOU
For a vivre card to lead to Zou:
The person must be at Zou.
The person must be alive.
The person must be in possession of a vivre card while at zou.
Most importantly, the person whose vivre card has been acquired MUST have been outside of Zou at least once, or it's impossible to get their vivre card to begin with.
They also MUST have run in with the Beast Pirates.
Who are the people that have been outside of Zou though?
Inuarashi was present at Wano when Kaido killed Oden (therefore been outside of Zou at least once confirmed), he ran into Beast Pirates (encounter confirmed).
Nekomamushi was present at Wano when Kaido killed Oden (therefore been outside of Zou at least once confirmed), he ran into Beast Pirates (encounter confirmed)
Pedro was a Pirate who went to WCI (therefore been outside of Zou at least once confirmed), but no evidence he ran into any other Pirates other than the Big Mom Pirates or Evidence he went to Wano (encounter unconfirmed).
The only Minks whose vivre cards could have been acquired are Inuarashi's or Nekomamushi's. Carrot and most Minks have not been outside of Zou, so it'd be impossible to have acquired their vivre cards, much more be considered traitors.
HOW DID THEIR VIVRE CARDS GET ACQUIRED
Through Kinemon's account of what happened when Oden got killed, he tells us Inuarashi and Nekomamushi got involved with the enemy whilst squabbling ⁹²⁰. In fact, Kinemon talks about this back in Zou, or at least... references it ⁸¹⁷.
One thing I'd like to point out is we don't know if vivre cards disappear if one is transported into the future or if they become regarded as dead according to the vivre card. Therefore, I'd go with what is known and assume the Beast Pirates acquired vivre cards of one of the 9 sheathes that were known to be alive at Zou (Nekomamushi and Inuarashi).
I'd guess Oden had vivre cards of his subordinates who sailed with him on both Whitebeard's and Roger's ship, thus when Oden was killed, the Beast Pirates likely acquired it. As soon as they heard Raizo was heading to Zou, they took these vivre cards of either Minks to Zou and stayed there unwavering in their conviction of Raizo's presence.
Another thing that should be taken note of here is the Minks said they planned with Kinemon and co. to meet up at Zou ⁸¹⁷. One of the Minks must have given a piece of their vivre card to Raizo.
While to me this definitely and evidentially proves there was no leak with sound reasoning and evidence, just the idea that the Minks could be traitors after almost dying is mind-boggling. Even without this, it's simply difficult to believe the Minks could be traitors.
The question now is who is the leak in Wano? I think based on this, I can confidently rule out the Minks.
THE LEAK AT WANO: Pick Your Hints Objectively
A bunch of the scabbards have been blamed for being leaks/traitors. The question that has to be asked is.... where's the evidence?
We sometimes mistaken hints and evidence. A hint is the entertainment of something possibly being evidence, and it may not be. Many theories that are wrong tend to be based on hints. It's subjective.
That's not to say a hint can't be evidence, a hint simply has to be consistent with the objective facts in order to be tenured.
Hints are also obscure, so they're hard claim as concrete evidence. For example:
Kinemon couldn't find Inuarashi when he wanted to report a leak having been found ⁹³⁸. Does that make Inuarashi the leak? No, why not? It's not substantial evidence of anything other than he wasn't found at that point in time.
It could be a hint and it may not be. When do we consider it a hint? If there's consecutive or inumerable displays of odd behaviour, then we could entertain it as a hint.
It's very difficult to call anything a hint; the only time something can be called a hint is after the fact. Hints are so obscure they can hardly be called evidence to prove anything.
The only time hints (which are subjective) can be really trusted is if there is a consistent showing of similar behaviours or patterns.
My last theory, I said speculatively, the culprit was Jibuemon simply the fact that:
He appeared to Kinemon with 2 men ⁹²⁰, and when the leak occurred, he wasn't present in Rasetsu prison whereas the 2 other men were ⁹³⁹.
Like I said in my theory, purely speculative. Maybe they just haven't seen him. It's not necessarily a case of Jibuemon being guilty.
Could it be a hint? Possibly, but in the end, if it turns out the leak was someone else, then it wasn't a hint at all.
We have to pick our hints carefully and objectively in context with previous information that's interpreted properly and makes sense.
ANALYSIS OF THE LEAK: WHO FITS THE BILL
We need to establish who could be the leak. Just like if 3 people were in a room and there's a missing item, we know 1 of these 3 people at the very least is the culprit.
In this scenario, we have to establish who the leak or traitor could be.
The important thing to understand is how did Kinemon develop his plan, and from that, we're able to find the flaws in the plan. This panel shows how the plan was formulated:
First, we must understand that Kinemon and co. appear 20 years from the past into the future.
They have lost all orientation of Wano.
They see the changes that have taken place.
They get approached by Jibuemon.
Jibuemon indicates that all allies of the Kozuki who were ready to fight 20 years ago got marked with ankle tattoos in the shape of crescents.
What we need to have in mind is Kinemon NEVER knew about the crescent ankle meaning most people do not know about it. These ankles didn't become a thing until the Kozuki clan were supposedly wiped out. For 20 years, people have been walking around Wano with these tattoos.
What does this mean? It means Orochi and the entirety of Wano probably never knew anything about these tattoos or its significance. THIS is why Kinemon decided to make leaflet puzzles with this crescent tattoo.
No one could know what it meant unless:
They had the tattoo meaning they knew what the tattoo symbolised.
Or were informed about the tattoo e.g. people like Kinemon without the tattoo who were informed of its symbolism such as the alliance outside of those wearing the crescent; in other words, anyone in the alliance.
Another thing to take into consideration is, yes, we're all the way at chapter 958, but the leak took effect in chapter 936 ⁹³⁶. Why is the chapter important? because it tells us when the leak occurred, therefore, anyone relevant in the story around this time is a suspect.
The culprits constrained to this period would be:
Samurai with Tattoos like Jibuemon (KNEW THE SYMBOLISM, DIDN'T NEED TO BE INFORMED)
Kinemon (informed on symbolism)
Kanjuro (informed on symbolism)
Raizo (informed on symbolism)
Kiku (informed on symbolism)
Momonosuke (informed on symbolism)
Shinobu (informed on symbolism)
Heart Pirates (informed on symbolism)
Straw Hats (informed on symbolism)
Ashura Doji/Shutenmaru (informed on symbolism)
Kawamatsu (informed on symbolism BUT was imprisoned up until chapter 948)
So, these are our culprits who number 11, but the only person we can cross out is Kawamatsu leaving us with 10 culprits. Leaks have been taking places before he was out of prison, therefore, it's likely the leaks are as a result of whomever leaked it the first time. What did I just do here? I gave Kawamatsu an ALIBI, and this is what I will be using to narrow down the culprit.
TIMING OF LEAK: WHY NOW?
Kinemon and co. are informing Luffy and co. that from the moment they were transported to the future, to the moment that Luffy arrived at Wano, only a few months (2-3) have gone by ⁹²⁰.
They met Jibuemon who told them about the crescent tattoo a few months ago apparently. So, anything from 2-3 months ago was when Kinemon knew about the crescent tatoo .
Kiku has been in Wano for let's say 2 months doing research and investigating Kaido's forces.
Kinemon left Kiku for 2 months while they went to find recruits from Zou and outside Wano.
My point is the crescent tattoo is something that has not been leaked for 2 months at least.
Kinemon, Heart Pirates and some SHs arrived at Wano about 2-3 weeks ago.
So for 2 months + 2/3 weeks, the crescent tattoo was never known about.
So, even before Luffy arrived, these people were in Wano and knew about the crescent tattoo:
Kinemon
Kanjuro
Raizo
Kiku
Shinobu
Inuarashi
More importantly, these people were the alliance and the people in the know. Then:
Strawhats - Zoro, Franky, Robin, Usopp
Heart Pirates - Law, Bepo, Shachi, etc.
My question is why wasn't there a leak for over 2 months and 2/3 weeks until the Luffy arrived. What happened after Luffy arrived? The tattoo only became known about AFTER Luffy and crew arrived.
This helps us refine the culprit further. The timing is from Luffy's arrival to chapter 936, we'll find who the leak is.
ALIBIS FOR THE ALLIANCE BETWEEN LUFFY'S ARRIVAL AND CHAPTER 936
I will only bring up those that are easiest to monitor, and those who I feel are relevant.
Luffy, Raizo, Kawamatsu were all in prison - so they can't likely be the leaks as Raizo would have been trying to save Luffy whereas Kawamatsu wouldn't know about the crescent.
Kiku was with Chopper, Big Mom, Momonosuke and Tama trying to go to Udon when the leak occurred, so we can somewhat dismiss them reasonably imo.
Shinobu was with Nami, Robin and Brook at the Feast trying to investigate the Shogun's dwelling before the leak happened, they were together the entire time, so even Shinobu shouldn't be able to leak anything.
The only one of the Scabbards that was not partaking in the investigating was Kanjuro who Nami and co. met with. So, Kanjuro was alone for a while.
Kanjuro was also isolated from Nami, Shinobu and Robin in the bath when the leak occurred.
Kanjuro has been the only one with this information that has been pretty isolated which does make him a possible leak.
Inuarashi was apparently nowhere to be found when Kinemon wanted to tell him a leak had occurred, but then he appeared, but he's been working closely with the others in the Kuri region, so we can't say anything definitely.
Out of all the scabbards, Kanjuro and Inuarashi seem to be the only ones who have been somewhat solitary to entertain them as leaks. Even with that said, it's hard to see the motive for any of these scabbards to be a leak as they've been through a hell of a lot to be culprits.
It all boils down to this, even if we entertain Kanjuro and Inuarashi as possible leaks, they've been in Wano for so long that it makes one wonder why they'd decide to leak now and not earlier? Why not earlier? It makes no sense.
Alibis does somewhat help, but context of these characters make it difficult to still point a finger at anyone. They've proven to be as loyal as they come. They shed tears over Yasu, they were angered by Kaido's gratuitous violence and they love Oden.
What then do we refer to in order to point fingers?
WHAT CHANGED AFTER LUFFY ARRIVED? ASHURA DOJI/SHUTENMARU
Kinemon tried to recruit Shutenmaru as we see here ⁹²⁵; the leaks happened shortly after this. A day or 2 later in fact.
Shutenmaru and jfought Kaido together ⁹²². This must have happened when Kinemon was transported into the future. Kawamatsu isn't present either. This could have happened 5 years ago or 15 years ago, we don't know. It's just odd that Shutenmaru doesn't say anything about this to Kinemon when he was indirectly speaking about Denjiro ⁹⁵⁴. He knows something about Denjiro given that they fought Kaido together, yet he says nothing about it.
We can assume Kinemon told Shutenmaru about the crescents; we know he did try to recruit Shutenmaru, but failed.
It's also quite odd that Shutenmaru pretended like he had no intention to fight Kaido when he refused Kinemon, he has actually been working towards fighting Kaido again where Kinemon is just 20 years late: We see he's been gathering ships from all around Wano for 20 years: . He also says he's not been idle for these 20 years.
Shutenmaru despite having failed 10 years ago ⁹⁵⁰, he's still been trying to fight against Kaido. He has been gathering ships, stealing food supplies. In fact, we know Shutenmaru was the one who stole the plans for Onigashima that Franky was looking for, and it seems he stole these after the people who couldn't wait 20 years to fight died 10 years ago.
Shutenmaru has also been recruiting men for the past 2 decades in preparation for Kaido ⁹⁵⁰.
Whilst trying to recruit Shutenmaru... Kinemon had no idea how many crescent footed people were around. They supposedly didn't even have 500 people recruited according to Shinobu.
This leads me to conclude that:
Shutenmaru was the one who leaked the crescent tattoo in order to see how many people would be rounded up for battle given that he's been preparing too.
I'm also going to guess that Shutenmaru knows who Denjiro is since we know both of them fought Kaido. It seems both changed their name, Ashura Doji changed to Shutenmaru whereas Kyoshiro changed to Denjiro.
Shutenmaru was aware that Hiyori was found, he was there when it was stated, but it seems the specifics whereabouts was never stated; he also possibly leaked Tokage Port probably because he's working alongside Denjiro (Kyoshiro); Denjiro will probably release the prisoners and they'll possibly regroup at Habu port.
It seems Shutenmaru may have outsmarted everyone as he's been doing for the past 20 years. It just seems odd that he fought with Denjiro and then he never even brings him up again. Could very well be that he's the leak and could be secretly working with Denjiro (Kyoshiro).
Quite interesting that the leak also never ratted out the fact the 9 sheathes were alive, otherwise Orochi would be looking for them at their base which is why I believe the leak is someone who doesn't hate Oden. If they did, they just need tell them where their base was located, and it would have been a wrap.
This is my final conclusion on the entire thing, could well be wrong, but I'm personally sold as I think it makes the most sense.
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